Freshspective
Tuesday, October 8, 2024 | Issue 155
Keep up with the most recent market trends in our Freshspective updates. Discover what's influencing conventional produce, organic options, temperature controlled capacity, and floral so you can plan ahead and avoid disruption.
Conventional Vegetables
Peru has product arriving into Miami from both regions, Ica in the south and Trujillo in the north. Good volume available as production starts ramping up. Mexico is crossing some volume but still below projections. We have product available from both origins, so call us for program opportunities!
Bell Peppers
[email protected]It didn’t take long for markets to react, as the local season is starting to dry up. We are seeing some harvesting from Georgia, but volume is way down as expected. Second half of the month will be a concern as Georgia will be the major region for pepper. We are also keeping in contact with California as an alternative option.
Broccoli
[email protected]Watch for the Southeast to be delayed on the broccoli start due to the aftereffects of Hurricane Helene.
Cabbage
[email protected]
Market remains strong on cabbage in the Midwest and is of good quality. Expect this to continue for the remainder of the month until other growing areas begin.
Celery supplies are steady with good volume available in Santa Maria and Salinas. The weather forecast calls for slightly warmer temperatures with no rain expected in the growing regions. Please reach out to your Robinson Fresh representative for updates and information regarding availability and promotions.
Cucumbers
[email protected]Eastern North Carolina is still in season and quality has been amazing! Weather allowing, we should have two more weeks of harvesting. Georgia is producing more off-grades because of the storm. Unfortunately, Florida is about to be affected by Hurricane Milton , so we are hoping for minimal damage.
Greens
[email protected]South Georgia continues to recover from the effects of Hurricane Helene. Northern regions are still producing light volume on greens. Watch for limited availability as we transition in about 2 weeks.
Leaf Lettuce
[email protected]Iceberg lettuce, romaine, red and green leaf supplies are plentiful. Quality reports are showing good overall quality. The weather forecast calls for average temperatures this week. The primary shipping points are Santa Maria and Salinas. Please reach out to your Robinson Fresh representative for more details.
Potatoes
[email protected]Harvest continues on russets with Idaho leading the way. Overall quality and sizing are good. Steady supplies on reds and yellows out of multiple regions, including Idaho, Wisconsin, and North Dakota. Not much change to report from the last update. Look for things to remain steady until the holidays approach.
Squash
[email protected]Georgia is still facing challenges with volume due to the recent storm. We don’t anticipate any improvement in volume in Georgia. Local supply is expected to end within the next 10 days, which will further reduce availability. On a positive note, we are beginning to see some Mexican product crossing through Nogales. Florida was about to start its season, but we now have to wait and see how Hurricane Milton will affect the region.
Sweet Corn
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Conventional Fruits
Apples
We are now harvesting many new varieties out of Washington, including Gala, Honeycrisp, Fuji, Granny Smith, Golden Delicious, and Red Delicious, as well as a few others. The new crop looks to be good with estimates of around 124 million cases this year. Although this is smaller than last year’s crop of around 136 million, it’s still shaping up to be a good crop! The quality of the new-crop fruit is reported to be very good, but the fruit size will run smaller than average this season which means less large tray apples and more bagging fruit this season. We continue to have good supplies of apples for this time of year out of Washington. Most varieties and packs have good availability, and quality is holding up very nicely this season. There are a few varieties and packs that have tightened a little and are resulting in some higher pricing. The Honeycrisp crop will be a little short and is now estimated to be 20% smaller than last year’s crop; as a result, we are seeing higher prices this week. Other items that are tighter this week are the varieties that are still waiting to start or complete harvest. These would include the Pink Lady, Fuji, and Envy varieties. Overall, we still have good supplies of apples to sell and expect attractive pricing on most varieties through the remainder of the summer. Apples will remain a good category to promote for the next several months with a predictable supply of high-quality fruit.
Avocados
Grower origins with fruit in the U.S. market this week into next week: Mexico. Total containers imported last week numbered 1,047.
KEY POINTS THIS WEEK:
- With a short harvest day last week, Mexico managed to send a total of 1047 containers to the U.S.
- Mexico reached 95% of market share the beginning of this month as California and Peru are at the tail end of their respective seasons.
- The size curve of Mexico’s harvest is heavily concentrated on 48s, 60s, and smaller.
- More orchards were available last week, and more additions are expected this week to the export listing in SICOA; however, they are a little short on covering demand and inventories needed. Heavier harvesting is expected in the coming weeks.
- Percentage of #2 fruit is still a low percentage of the overall current crop.
Bush Berries
[email protected]
Blueberries - Peru import availability is still spotty. Mexico has some periodic product crossing into U.S. with spotty pallet volumes available. Weather issues are disrupting supply consistency.
Cantaloupe
Good supply on cantaloupes this week out of the Central Valley, with sizing trending toward 9 and 12 counts, with fewer jumbos. Yuma, Arizona cantaloupes will start early next week. Brings a good melon value when seedless watermelon and mini watermelon markets are high.
Citrus
Oranges:
Domestic navels are anticipated to begin this month out of California. Overall crop volume is projected to be up slightly from last season. Early-season sizing profile will be heavy on small fruit, which will require long gas hours to bring out the color. High temperatures in the growing regions make fruit susceptible to re-greening, but the heat wave should break soon. Cooler nights are needed to help fruit color up, so gassing hours should improve as weather improves. Quality is anticipated to be great as growing conditions were good throughout the off-season. Grade expectation is 70% fancy, 15% choice, and 15% standard.
Import navel supply volume remains tight as demand increased from the short domestic Valencia season and an overall smaller import crop. As navels come to an end, Midknight Valencias have started, with much of the supply committed to programs. But availability should improve as the domestic season gets going. Chilean Cara Caras remain limited due to an overall demand for oranges.
Florida juice oranges have started, with early varieties peaking on 100/125/138 counts. The Hamlin variety is the first to be harvested, which should be available through most of January, before Valencias start. The overall juice orange market is expected to be strong this season. Florida is bracing for a hurricane this week, the outcome of which could affect projections on all Florida citrus.
The last of the import lemon supply will be available through the month but use caution on quality with end-of-season fruit. Mexican lemons are available with mostly smaller fruit available. Mexico has struggled with sizing and quality due to drought in the growing regions. Overall demand on large fruit will continue to strengthen with offshore import supplies phasing out, as Mexico and California crops are peaking on small-sized fruit.
Grapefruit:
South African import markets are elevated as California ended early due to quality and low utilization. Available supply will continue to remain tight through the end of the import season. Mexican grapefruit has started, with mostly mid- to small-sized fruit available, 40 count and smaller. Florida grapefruit will start harvesting in the next week, with a similar sizing profile to Mexico. Availability on Florida grapefruit may change, pending the outcome of the hurricane. Texas grapefruit is slated to start mid-November, with a good crop anticipated since the last Texas freeze.
Mandarins:
California clementines are projected to start early- to mid-November. Overall volume is expected to be up from last year with sizing peaking on 28 count. Florida tangerines should start in a few weeks, peaking on 120 count. Orri mandarins out of Florida are anticipated to start in December, peaking on 100 count.
Grapes
With sufficient supply to meet demand, along with the slowing of competing categories, grapes are gaining momentum for October. Retailers are looking for something to push this month and it’s looking more and more like grapes! For now, the market is stable and has been for a couple weeks. However, shippers are expected to jump prices on green as more Autumn Kings enter the picture. Reds are more plentiful; we expect prices to remain steady on red XL fruit through this week, depending on variety. Black and red globes are available. with supply currently meeting demand. However, they will remain tighter this year due to more limited availability.
Honeydew
Steady supply on honeydews this week out of Central Valley, California, with no significant changes. Mexican honeydews out of Northern Mexico have begun shipping into Nogales, Arizona, with sizing trending larger out of the new crop.
Limes
Region: Veracruz, Mexico
Weather Update: The weather forecast is showing a high percentage of rain throughout the week. Temperatures will fluctuate between 68 degrees and 89 degrees.
Market Intel: The demand for limes has been steady. Please contact your Robinson Fresh representative for market updates as they change daily.
Mangos
Brazil
• Brazil is nearing the end of its mango season as growers are decreasing their harvest volumes to the U.S. Most growers will cease operations by week 42, with a couple growers still being able to ship until early November due to their farms being up north compared to most of the other growers. We have seen a reduction of 40% on total volume season-to-date currently from Brazil and we expect that to continue until the end of the season.
• Overall, we will be seeing a shorter season from Brazil compared to last year due to Ecuador being early this mango season. We have heavy commitments on our Brazil supply on both special packs and 4kg packs. Expect transactional volume to be available but not on heavy amounts from our own supply.
• Crop outlook from Brazil is about 50% large sizes (6-9 counts), followed by 50% on small sizes (10/12 counts).
• We will be seeing Tommy Atkins variety for the beginning of the season and now in October, we will most likely see a mix of Tommy and Keitt varieties shipping from Brazil.
• We are expecting to still pack some mango out of Brazil for the next few weeks, focusing more on 4kg large mango.
• Current weather conditions in Petrolina, Brazil are from the high-90s to mid-70s.
Ecuador
• Ecuador has already started its harvest/packing season for the U.S. with the first arrivals last week on red mango. The first couple weeks of packing are usually lower in volume as growers are getting everything started for the season and most fruit is not ready to be harvested yet. We are expecting Ecuador to increase volumes significantly, starting to pack the last week of October, meaning arrivals here to the U.S. the second week of November.
• Ecuador started their season a couple weeks earlier compared to the previous season, mainly because of the floriation of the trees being somewhat early due to weather conditions. They have shipped some Ataulfo mango for about 2 weeks already and are just starting to ship Tommy Atkins. We expect Ecuador as a country to ship close to 13 million cases this season, with 85% of it coming to the U.S.
• Crop outlook for Ecuador is about 30% large sizes (6-9 counts), followed by 70% on small sizes (10/12 counts).
• We have seen some reduction on ocean carriers going to both the East Coast and West Coast. Though, there are still a few options to ship fruit, spaces on the vessels for mango containers is not as high as prior seasons. This is not an issue at the moment, but it might be when we are at the peak of Ecuador’s season by late-October/early-November.
• Current weather conditions in Guayaquil, Ecuador are high-80s to low-70s.
Papaya
SUPPLY NOT MEETING DEMAND FOR PAPAYA IN THE U.S. MARKET!
- Supply conditions have tightened even more with the quality issues affecting the overall yields of papaya out of Mexico. Contracts are being prorated due to the lack of availability and extremely high prices. Prices are much higher in the U.S. market with significantly higher prices on smaller fruit. Crop yields were affected mainly by the changes in weather with additional rainfall at the fields and root rot still present. Weather conditions in Mexico are reported as MIXED and not favorable for yields. Inventories are showing NO availability to offer.
- Majority of sizes are between 6–9s, with NO surplus fruit.
- Quality is reported as marginally good with fruit showing speckling and some scarring. Fruit condition: heavier scarring. Color 25%- 50% / 12-14 brix at point of shipping. The ideal temperature for Imperial papaya is 48 degrees to avoid quality issues upon receiving.
- Crop outlook: Forecast has conditions as MIXED with tight supply for the next two weeks.
- Market Intel: NOT Enough supply to service demand.
Pears
We are now shipping new-crop Bartletts and red Bartletts out of both Washington State and Oregon. Anjou pears are shipping in very small quantities with a handful of growers at this time. Most of the larger pear growers are actually still waiting for the fruit to ripen more before they begin their harvest. Bosc pears have now started to ship at very high prices. Overall, the pear crop will be very short this year will all varieties being down 30% to 50%; we won’t have the final totals until the crop is finished harvesting around November 1st. Expect the prices to be much higher than previous years but quality should be good.
Pineapple
Availability: Supply NOT Meeting Demand in U.S. Market
• Growing region: Some fruit out of Mexico is being reported, mostly smaller counts. The summer gap continues to stretch into October with little to no available fruit to pack and export. Most fruit harvested in Mexico continues to stay in the country and is being sold at internal markets with good overall prices. Weather at the pineapple fields is affecting the internal quality with heavy basal spotting being reported. Transportation out of Mexico is stable with good availability of trucks to service pineapple shippers. COSTA RICA availability of small fruit is improving slightly but with very little available on 5/6/7-caliber fruit. Good quality on fruit being exported but the main issue remains to be size. Shortage of large fruit has not changed and as per latest forecast, it will be ongoing for the remainder of this season. Markets will remain high for the next few weeks with NO significant surplus expected.
• Mexican fruit quality is marginal with little to NO fruit meeting U.S. specifications. Prices are high on all counts out of Mexico and Costa Rica. COSTA RICA volume remains low AT PACKING with the expectation of improvement only on smaller counts. NO surplus fruit available to pack at this time. The U.S. market remains high on all counts with supply NOT meeting demand. Costa Rica is under mostly rainy conditions in the northern region.
• Movement: The USDA is showing a low number of pineapple loads crossing last week with only 970 containers reported FROM Costa Rica for the entire continental USA. It continues to be a very low number for this time of year with little changing in the last few weeks.
• Forecast: Some surplus fruit is being offered at shipping points by large grower/shippers at this time. Market is high with good demand and slightly lower prices this week.
Strawberries
Strawberries in some California growing areas are past their peak production, with harvest volumes decreasing weekly. Santa Maria is harvesting new crop on a regular basis and Oxnard is starting to harvest new-crop fruit as well. A heat spell over the past few days in the growing areas will cause excessive bruising, over ripeness, soft fruit, decay, and limited shelf life. Older California fruit is fair quality with full color and medium to small sizing, while Santa Maria new crop has slightly larger fruit. Santa Maria for the week of October 7th is forecast to be pleasant with intervals of clouds and sunshine. Highs are expected in the 70s and lows in the 50s. The week of October 14th is forecast for intervals of clouds and sunshine, becoming sunny for the weekend. Highs are forecast in the 70s, increasing to the low 80s for the weekend, and lows in the 50s. Oxnard for the week of October 7th is forecast to be partly sunny, becoming mostly sunny for the weekend, with highs in the 70s and lows in the upper 50s. The week of October 14th is forecast to be mostly sunny, Thursday mostly cloudy, and then plenty of sunshine Friday through the weekend. Highs are forecast in the 70s and lows in the upper 50s.
Watermelon
Watermelons are picking up in volume out of Nogales, Arizona, out of Northern Mexico. We will have better volume this week on 45-count seedless and 60-count seedless, both shipping out of Nogales, Arizona. Florida should get started later this week if they do not get hit by Hurricane Milton at the end of the week.
Organic Fruits & Vegetables
Organic Apples
[email protected]We are now harvesting and shipping new-crop organic Gala, organic Honeycrisp, organic Fuji, and organic Granny Smith. We also still have limited supplies of organic Pink Lady available from last season’s crop. The organic crop looks to be a little smaller than last year’s crop but there’s still a very good crop on the trees. We expect to have good supplies all year and prices should be very promotable again for the rest of this year.
Organic Dry Vegetables
[email protected]Nogales seems to be getting started on some dry vegetables. We are mostly seeing some cucumbers, bell peppers, sweet peppers, and zucchini. There is not a lot of volume coming in so markets are firm. As we get through October and into November, we will start seeing things really open up and be promotable.
Organic Melons
[email protected]Organic minis are finishing up in Patterson, California, and Northern Mexico will start in a couple of weeks.
Organic Onions
[email protected]Organic onions are going strong now! Supply is coming from Washington, Oregon, and California now. Overall quality is outstanding! The markets have come down from their highs and are now starting to be promotable. Our onion program out of Hollister, California is peaking on jumbos. We have plenty of red and yellow onions and the quality is outstanding!
Organic Pears
[email protected]We are now shipping new-crop organic Bartletts , organic Anjou, and organic Bosc this week. Overall, the organic pear crop will be down 30%-50%, depending on the variety. Expect prices to be much higher than in previous years but quality to remain very good.
Organic Potatoes
[email protected]The potato season is in full swing now with all varieties available out of Washington, Colorado, and Wisconsin. Demand is strong going into the month of October and it’s time to get your Thanksgiving advertisements put in place. Markets are steady at this point on all three colors. Specialty potatoes ( fingerlings and baby potatoes) are in good supply as well.
Organic Squash
[email protected]It is time to start pushing winter squash. The weather is changing and so are store sets. Time to carry all of the great varieties we are offering out of Hollister, California! Quality is very good with very little scarring on the squash. We have Butternut, Spaghetti, Acorn, Delicata, Kabocha, Red Kuri, Carnival, and Honeynut.
Organic Sweet Potatoes
[email protected]The sweet potato market has now moved on to only new crop. Growers are still digging up sweet potatoes, but all varieties are now available out of Livingston, California. Markets are strong currently due to the new crop starting, but it is also time to start thinking about your Thanksgiving advertisements. Give us a call and we can help you set up those ads!
Transportation
Despite regional produce season ramping up out of the Pacific Northwest, the broader temperature-controlled market remains loose. Seasonally, there tends to be pressure on capacity within the Northeast, driven by port activity. Given the disruption caused by port labor issues, this could potentially be amplified this year. Disruptions from hurricanes in the Southeast could exacerbate this as well.
Western United States
Since Labor Day, historical trends have prevailed from southwest origin points. Due to the broader market conditions, capacity has been widely available across the region. Markets have begun to tighten out of the Pacific Northwest, which is a trend that will likely continue over the coming months as seasonal freight demand increases. Providing ample lead time will improve coverage and mitigate price increases.
Central United States
The Mid-South market continues to soften, with capacity readily available. The Mid-North and Great Lakes regions are in the early stages of seasonal tightening, but there hasn’t been too much movement of note just yet.
Eastern United States
The Southeast market remains very soft, and capacity is readily available. There is more risk out of this region of the United States than any other currently due to weather and labor disruptions. Staying vigilant about current market conditions is important in this region.
The Northeast is in a similar situation, as current capacity is ample, but threats of labor issues and even hurricanes remain. Shorter lead time is more challenging in the Northeast than the Southeast.
Subscribe to our Client Advisories for the most up-to-date information about shifting market conditions. Work with your C.H. Robinson team to stay informed on regionalized opportunities and how to best schedule freight to capitalize on the best price and service.
GLOBAL UPDATES
OCEAN CARRIER CONSOLIDATION - Fresh produce growers and shippers attempting to move cargo globally via ocean vessels are dealing with scenarios where ocean carriers genuinely dictate some markets. They dictate and determine the marketability and viability of export markets for many fresh produce exporters. Shippers are being forced to commit earlier to ocean lines to reserve space for upcoming seasons, and spot market space on vessels is nearly impossible to secure.
RED SEA SHIPPING CRISIS – The total capacity of ocean containers has grown by 10% in the past 12 months, yet much capacity was absorbed by re-routing the Red Sea and Asia port congestion in the recent months. Hundreds of ships are currently diverting around Africa to avoid attacks in the Red Sea, causing delays to global trade and inflicting months of disruption and imminent price rises on supplies. Crisis has led to doubling insurance costs and soaring demands for security services, which have raised prices and affected availability of fresh produce from Africa and Australia.
DEMURRAGE/DETENTION CHARGES - Shippers negotiating with ocean carriers or freight forwarders on perishable cargo contracts should request as much free time at destination as possible to reduce the risk of detention/demurrage charges when inspections/fumigations or drayage capacity constraints delay cargo delivery at destination. Unavoidable and unprecedented demurrage and detention charges due to delays in turning cargo at destination continue in 2024.
PORT STRIKE - The recent port strike involving dockworkers on the East and Gulf Coasts of the United States has been temporarily suspended following a tentative agreement reached between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX). The strike, which began on October 2, 2024, had shut down 14 major ports, causing significant disruptions to supply chains and threatening economic stability. Their master contract has been extended until January 15, 2025, allowing further negotiations on other outstanding issues.
For more global freight insights please visit Global Freight Markets Insights | C.H. Robinson.
Floral
Colombia availability is good. Ecuador keeps fighting drought which has impacted electricity production and, hence, availability. Hurricane Milton will impact the supply chain as it crosses the Florida peninsula.