Keep up with the most recent market trends in our Freshspective updates. Discover what's influencing conventional produce, organic options, temperature-controlled capacity, and floral so you can plan ahead and avoid disruption.
Asparagus market remains short and at all-time record high, this certainly has started to feel like a new norm for this category, the reality is that productive acreage in Peru is reduced approximately 20% compared to years past due to fields coming to an end and there is not a concrete plan of replacing that surface any time soon, that combined with challenging weather patterns caused by El Super Nino continues to cause the perfect storm. Mexico doesn’t have the volume available to make up the shortages experienced in Peru. From a sizing standpoint, big sizes are extremely limited and now with most retailers subbing standard with small sizes, it has created an unprecedented shortage on a size that historically has been abundant in the past. Even Europe has started to inquire on smalls which is unheard of. We will continue to see strong markets at least through the first half of October, maybe even longer. We are also actively monitoring hurricane Polo and the consequences that can bring to the Mexican fields in Baja California, but with the expected rain we foresee market to continue to stay tight for the next 2-3 weeks at least.
As noted last week, local production is wrapping up quickly. Michigan is expected to conclude by the end of the week. Georgia is the next region expected to support supply; however, the season has been delayed by approximately one week, with meaningful production now expected around October 15 to 20.
California growers continue to manage the effects of recent heat, lighter yields, and ongoing insect pressure. Supply is available but not abundant, and quality varies by district, particularly in crown sizing and field condition. Mexico continues to provide important supplemental volume, helping offset tighter California availability.
Demand remains steady. Over the next two weeks, moderate availability variability is expected, although improving harvest conditions could gradually increase supply as October approaches.
Cabbage continues to be in limited supply especially on mediums and small sizing. There will be a little relief next week when additional fields are ready. Southeastern cabbage will be ready mid-October.
Celery availability is generally adequate across California and Mexico, with quality meeting expectations in most growing regions. Consistent production from multiple sourcing areas has helped maintain balance between supply and demand and limit the risk of significant disruptions. Availability is expected to remain relatively stable over the next two weeks.
Based on current reports, North Carolina weathered the weekend storm relatively well. Production remains steady in both North Carolina and Georgia, which should support good availability. This continues to be a favorable opportunity for promotions.
Greens supplies remain steady, although some varieties are lighter than others. Mustard greens are in very limited supply. Collard, kale, and turnip greens are available in good volume from Northern regions. Quality has remained stable. Southeast production has begun to slow but is expected to increase over the next two weeks. Supply is expected to remain steady in that region as well.
Leaf lettuce supplies remain tighter than normal as California production continues to recover from recent weather-related stress and seasonal field challenges. Growers report variable yields and occasional quality concerns across romaine, green leaf, and red leaf, including insect pressure and field-related defects.
Movement remains active, and demand continues to outpace supplies of the best-quality product, creating periodic availability shifts and short-term prorate risk. Mexico and regional growing areas are helping supplement availability, but California remains the primary supply driver. Supplies are expected to gradually improve over the next two weeks, although availability may shift quickly if weather or harvest conditions change.
Supply conditions remain unchanged, with yellow squash continuing to be the primary challenge. As local production nears completion, the focus has shifted to Georgia. Cooler weather and ongoing whitefly pressure have limited production and slowed the anticipated transition. Hurricane Polo is also being monitored because it could affect an important dry-vegetable growing region in Mexico.
As cooler fall weather arrives, farms in the Upper Midwest will finish harvesting for the season. Production will move south to Georgia, where the season has been slow to begin because of recent hot weather. Volume is expected to increase in approximately seven to 10 days as the industry moves into the fourth quarter.
Get the latest insights in retail activations and commodity trends!
The Washington apple harvest is in full swing, with Gala, Honeycrisp, Granny Smith, Fuji, Golden Delicious, and Red Delicious now being harvested. October will be the final month of harvest, when Washington will begin harvesting later varieties such as Cosmic Crisp, Envy, and Pink Lady.
The early-variety harvest is smaller than projected, and the trend is expected to continue across most varieties this year. The overall crop is expected to be approximately 8% to 10% smaller than last year, with excellent quality and color.
Michigan’s crop is projected to improve from last year at approximately 25 million cases. New York’s crop is expected to be slightly smaller than the previous year. Pennsylvania’s crop will also be down significantly after poor weather caused severe crop loss this season.
Overall apple volume will be lower this year. Crop condition and quality are expected to be superior to last year, supporting good-quality fruit from storage throughout the season.
The Texas Valley is the primary shipping point for avocados, with Mexico supplying 90% of the volume. Supplies are good, all sizes are available, and quality remains strong as the second bloom begins. California harvest volume is declining as the season winds down. Peru is nearly finished, with final shipments arriving. Colombia’s new season is beginning, although most volume is destined for Europe.
California production continues this week from the Central Valley, with volume declining. Production in Yuma, Arizona, is expected to begin around October 10 to 15.
Oranges
Grapefruit
Mandarins
Minneolas
Grape availability is expected to remain good entering October, particularly as Peru’s unusually early start becomes a key factor. Piura is nearly one month ahead of schedule, and southern regions are also running early. Increasing Peruvian shipments could create an unusual overlap with California fruit as early as November.
[email protected]
California production continues this week from the Central Valley, with volume declining. Production in Yuma, Arizona, is expected to begin around October 10 to 15. Northern Mexico production has begun on a limited basis, with loading in Nogales.
Region: Veracruz, Mexico
Weather Update: A warm, humid period with intermittent rainfall is expected. Maximum temperatures are forecast to range from approximately 88°F to 96°F, with minimum temperatures between 72°F and 77°F. Variable cloud cover and periods of sunshine will prevail, with showers and thunderstorms most likely during the afternoon and evening. Warm and humid conditions are expected to persist toward the end of the forecast period.
Sizing Profile:
Peak sizes: 230, 200, and 250.
Size distribution: 110 - 10%; 150 - 9%; 175 - 14%; 200 - 21%; 230 - 26%; 250 - 20%.
Quality: Elevated temperatures and high humidity may increase phytosanitary pressure, favoring disease development and pest activity. These conditions may also increase the risk of oleocellosis, or oil spot, and fruit-quality deterioration during harvest.
Looking Ahead: Orchards are entering a post-harvest vegetative recovery stage, during which increased shoot emergence, foliage development, and medium-sized fruit development are expected.
The recovery phase is expected to be completed during this period, provided significant rainfall occurs across the region. This rainfall would support the development and production potential of the next fruiting cycle.
Supply is meeting demand for papaya in the U.S. market. Supply conditions are good but remain tighter for smaller counts, while large fruit is more readily available than in prior weeks. Yields and quality are good, and volume arriving in the U.S. this week is sufficient to serve demand.
Papaya production volume is expected to remain stable over the next two weeks but will depend heavily on weather conditions at the farms. Inventories indicate some availability of large fruit. Most sizes range from 6s to 9s, with some surplus fruit.
Quality is reported as good, with some speckling, lower color, and occasional softer spots. Fruit is shipping at 25% to 50% color and 12 to 14 Brix. The ideal temperature for Imperial papaya is 48°F to help avoid quality issues upon receipt.
The crop outlook indicates sufficient supply for the next two weeks.
Bartlett, Anjou, and Red pears are now shipping from Washington and Oregon. The overall Washington crop is projected to be smaller than last year’s bumper crop, but ample fruit should be available this season. Quality is reported as good, and sizing appears normal, with a balanced size mix. Good supplies of all major pear varieties are expected through the remainder of the year.
Availability:
Supply is just meeting demand in the U.S. market.
Conventional: Recent heat has advanced production and yields ahead of schedule. Northern fruit from the Salinas and Watsonville summer districts continues to differ from Southern fruit from the Santa Maria fall crop, primarily because of quality as summer plants move through their final harvest cycles.
Supply variability is expected among growers in berry sizing, varieties, and daily yield. Harvest schedules are being closely monitored and adjusted as needed, with fresh-market quality remaining the top priority. Production in the Oxnard District is expected to increase as October begins.
Organic: Moderate availability continues across both Northern and Southern districts. Supply is expected to gradually improve as the fall crop gains momentum in early October, weather permitting.
Watermelon supplies are tightening for both mini and seedless varieties. Limited supplies remain in Indiana and Michigan for another week or two. Florida is expected to begin its fall crop in a couple of weeks, while Texas has limited supplies. Northern Mexico is expected to begin shipping through Edinburg, Texas, in mid-October, and Nogales is starting with limited supplies. Planted volume is lower this year in Northern Mexico.
The Washington State organic apple harvest is in full swing. Growers have finished or are beginning to harvest organic Gala, Granny Smith, Fuji, and Honeycrisp. As October progresses, they will harvest later varieties, including organic Envy, Cosmic Crisp, and Pink Lady.
Overall, the crop is following the conventional crop and is trending approximately 10% below last year. Organic Honeycrisp and Gala appear to be down more than other varieties at this point. Overall fruit quality is expected to be good this season.
California organic citrus is entering a critical transition period heading into the latter part of the 2026 season. Growers are balancing record retail demand against tighter upcoming crop volumes.
Overall Navel Volume Down: Recent estimates project California's upcoming navel orange crop to be approximately 35% smaller than the previous year's exceptionally large harvest.
Shippers report that weekly volumes should remain relatively steady, but the overall season will be much shorter, causing peak availability to end earlier than usual.
Domestic Lemon Supply Gaps: California's District 1, or Central Valley, completed its lemon harvest earlier this summer. This contributed to a high-demand, low-inventory environment expected to persist through September 2026.
The peak local season for organic hard winter squash is beginning and is expected to support produce departments through early November.
Specialty Standouts: Organic delicata, known for its edible skin, and organic pie pumpkins are reaching shelves with strong early-season quality.
Organic mini melons are winding down in Patterson, California, with limited supplies. Production is expected to resume in Northern Mexico in April.
The California organic onion season is in full swing. Supply is strong, and quality is outstanding. The Pacific Northwest, including Washington and Oregon, has started with light volume. Medium and jumbo onions are both in good supply. Shallots have also begun and are available in Hollister, California.
New-crop organic Bartlett, Anjou, and Bosc pears are now shipping. The overall Washington organic pear crop is projected to be smaller than last season’s bumper crop, but ample pears should be available for promotions over the next several months.
As the California potato season ends, the Northwest season is beginning to pick up. Russet, red, yellow, and fingerling potatoes are being harvested and placed into storage. Potatoes from the region are currently very fresh and should continue to be fresh-packed throughout September.
Organic summer squash supply, including zucchini, yellow crookneck squash, and cucumbers, varies significantly by region:
Organic sweet potato supply is stable and consistent, supported by steady shipping from core domestic growing areas and sufficient volume as the industry awaits late-summer and fall harvests. Properly cured organic sweet potatoes have a long storage life, helping the category avoid the sharp midsummer supply gaps seen in other dry vegetable categories. California continues to lead western supply, with strong production from the Central Valley. Shippers are drawing high-quality cured organic sweet potatoes from storage to meet steady demand.
OCEAN TRENDS - Global ocean networks continue to normalize, although operating conditions remain fluid and regionally uneven. The security situation in the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and broader Middle East continues to influence carrier network decisions and routing strategies. During 2026, several major carriers, including Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, and COSCO, have progressively expanded Suez Canal utilization on selected services following ongoing improvements in regional security conditions. Additional Asia-Europe and Asia-Mediterranean services were restored to Suez routing during September 2026; however, carriers continue to characterize these routing decisions as conditional and subject to reversal should security conditions deteriorate. Overall Suez Canal traffic has improved from 2025 levels but remains significantly below pre-crisis volumes, with many operators maintaining contingency routings via the Cape of Good Hope. Recent increases in containership transits suggest improving confidence, but war-risk insurance costs, operational flexibility concerns, and periodic security incidents continue to limit a full network return to pre-2024 operating patterns. Transit times have improved on services returning to Suez routing; however, vessels continuing to utilize Cape routings may still experience voyage extensions of approximately 10 to 14 days. Carriers remain disciplined in capacity deployment, while equipment imbalances and periodic space constraints continue to occur in select trade lanes. Reefer demand remains robust in several agricultural export markets, particularly in Latin America, and equipment repositioning challenges continue to affect refrigerated cargo availability in certain regions.
TARIFF IMPACTS - The U.S. tariff environment remains highly dynamic and continues to present significant compliance and cost-management challenges for importers. The temporary Section 122 import surcharge expired on July 24, 2026, upon reaching its statutory 150-day limit. Simultaneously, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) implemented new Section 301 tariff measures applicable to approximately 60 economies, establishing a two-tier tariff structure generally ranging from 10 percent to 12.5 percent. As a result, many importers have experienced little overall reduction in duty exposure despite the expiration of the Section 122 surcharge, as the new Section 301 measures largely replaced the temporary surcharge framework. Existing Section 301, Section 232, antidumping, and countervailing duty programs remain in effect, and additional trade actions continue to be evaluated under multiple statutory authorities. Importers should continue monitoring developments closely, as trade policy remains subject to ongoing regulatory, judicial, and administrative developments.
DEMURRAGE/DETENTION CHARGES - Following the September 23, 2025 decision by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit in World Shipping Council v. Federal Maritime Commission, the Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) ceased enforcement of 46 CFR Section 541.4, the provision governing which parties may be invoiced for demurrage and detention charges. The FMC subsequently removed Section 541.4 from the Code of Federal Regulations. The court vacated only that section of the rule and left all remaining Demurrage and Detention Billing Requirements fully intact. Accordingly, invoice-content requirements, the 30-day invoice issuance deadline, and associated billing dispute timelines remain enforceable. The FMC has indicated that future rulemaking may address invoicing responsibility; however, no replacement regulation has been finalized as of September 2026. As a result, contractual provisions and commercial agreements currently remain the primary mechanisms governing responsibility for demurrage and detention charges. Stakeholders should continue reviewing contractual allocations of demurrage and detention liability and ensure billing practices align with the remaining requirements of 46 CFR Part 541.
REGULATORY & COMPLIANCE LANDSCAPE - The FDA continues implementation activities associated with the Food Safety Modernization Act (FSMA) Section 204 Food Traceability Rule. The compliance deadline remains July 20, 2028. Although enforcement remains deferred, FDA has continued conducting stakeholder outreach, public meetings, tabletop readiness exercises, and discussions regarding potential implementation flexibilities, particularly concerning lot-level traceability requirements. During 2026, FDA conducted additional stakeholder engagement activities and released supplemental implementation materials focused on compliance flexibilities and industry readiness. Many retailers, foodservice providers, and supply chain partners continue advancing traceability initiatives ahead of the compliance deadline and may require enhanced recordkeeping and electronic data-sharing capabilities before federal enforcement begins. Companies handling Food Traceability List products should continue preparing for compliance despite the extended implementation timeline.
ISPM-15 WOOD PACKAGING PROTOCOLS (UPDATED 2026) - Effective January 1, 2026, USDA APHIS and U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) resumed full enforcement of the ISPM-15 hyphen requirement contained within the IPPC wood packaging mark. The agencies previously suspended enforcement during much of 2025 but confirmed there would be no additional grace period or soft-enforcement period following December 31, 2025. Shipments containing noncompliant wood packaging materials may be subject to cargo holds, re-export requirements, penalties, or other enforcement actions. Importers and exporters should ensure all wood packaging materials fully comply with ISPM-15 marking requirements, including the required hyphen separating the country code from the producer code, in order to avoid potential supply chain disruptions.
EMERGENCY BUNKER SURCHARGE - Emergency bunker, fuel, war-risk, security, contingency, and conflict-related surcharges continue to impact global ocean transportation costs. Although portions of the container shipping industry have cautiously resumed Red Sea and Suez Canal transits, many carriers continue to apply war-risk and contingency-based pricing mechanisms due to ongoing geopolitical instability, elevated insurance premiums, and operational uncertainty in the Middle East. Recent security incidents and periodic disruptions in the Red Sea, Gulf region, and adjacent waterways continue to create uncertainty regarding transportation costs, transit times, schedule reliability, and network planning. While freight markets remain generally balanced, carriers maintain the flexibility to adjust surcharge programs rapidly in response to security developments, insurance market conditions, fuel costs, and vessel-routing decisions. Importers and exporters should continue monitoring carrier advisories closely, as war-risk and conflict-related surcharges may be implemented, modified, or withdrawn on short notice.
For more global freight insights please visit Global Freight Markets Insights | C.H. Robinson Ocean Shipping Freight Market Update | C.H. Robinson
No significant changes are reported for floral. Product availability and air capacity remain adequate from both growing regions.