Freshspective
Tuesday, December 3, 2024 | Issue 158
Keep up with the most recent market trends in our Freshspective updates. Discover what's influencing conventional produce, organic options, temperature controlled capacity, and floral so you can plan ahead and avoid disruption.
Conventional Vegetables
Regional Volume Update
Mexico: Volume is still under projections. Weather continues to put pressure on the crops, and it seems this will keep volume low for product crossing next week as well.
Peru: Both regions continue to have availability and are projected to maintain it for the next couple of weeks. Keep in mind that we are going to start seeing the decline in volume for the south region, so pricing is expected to rise as only the north region will be producing in the latter part of December and into January.
Market Update
The market is already adjusting on both coasts for the increased demand for the holidays. Everything remains in line with expectations previously communicated.
Bell Peppers
[email protected]Our Georgia season is officially done, as the freezing temperatures over the weekend put an end to it. Markets are still regularly active, as Florida is also experiencing some cooler weather. We are still hopeful that Florida will be back to normal volume by the middle of the month. Nogales is also starting to see some better volume cross.
Broccoli
[email protected]Broccoli continues to be available in California, Georgia, and Mexico. Quality is excellent and volume is good.
Cabbage
Cabbage in the Southeast has experienced limited availability over the last 7-10 days. Expect volume to improve as we move through the week. Quality is good. Start planning for Christmas and New Year’s today!
Celery supplies are steady with good volume available in Santa Maria, Salinas, and Oxnard. The weather forecast calls for cooler temperatures with no rain expected in the growing regions. Please reach out to your Robinson Fresh representative for updates and information regarding availability and promotions.
Cucumbers
[email protected]Honduras was not impacted by the tropical storm from two weeks ago. The season will start in about a week, so this is great news. Florida continues to slowly get going and we hope the season will carry us until the end of the year. Nogales remains strong and we should continue to see steady volume.
Greens
[email protected]Greens in the Southeast are in good supply. Weather in the growing regions this week has been very cool, which may hinder plant growth and harvest. Please talk to you Robinson Fresh representative today to plan your Christmas and New Year’s promotions!
Leaf Lettuce
[email protected]Iceberg lettuce, romaine, red and green leaf supplies are improving this week. Quality reports are showing good overall quality with occasional seeder and lightweights reported. The weather forecast calls for average temperatures this week. The primary shipping points are Yuma and the Imperial Valley, with some availability in Oxnard. Please reach out to your Robinson Fresh representative for more details.
Potatoes
[email protected]Plenty of high-quality potatoes out there! We are just starting the second holiday pull, so expect demand to pick up in the next week or so. Pricing remains stable.
Squash
[email protected]New growing regions in Mexico are producing better-than-expected volume. We are starting to see more crossings, so the outlook looks much better than two weeks ago. Even though Florida is experiencing some colder weather, we do expect volume to get back to normal.
Sweet Corn
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Conventional Fruits
Apples
We have now completed the harvest in Washington State. We had good weather for most of the harvest and we managed to avoid any significant damage to the crop. The new crop looks good with estimates of around 128 million cases this year. Although this is smaller than last year’s crop of approximately 136 million, it’s still shaping up to be a good season. Due to the good growing conditions this season, the report from the growers is that fruit quality will be very good again this year. Most varieties, with a few exceptions, were down a little from last season, but we do have one important crop that was down significantly from last year. The conventional Honeycrisp crop is now reported to be down over 30% compared to last year’s crop, resulting in higher prices this season. The organic Honeycrisp are even worse with this crop being down over 40% this season. Expect the Honeycrisp prices to remain high and rise as we get later in the year. Other items that are tighter this week include bagged Granny Smith, large Fuji and large Gala. There is one variety that we have a larger crop than last season and that is the newer Cosmic Crisp variety. The crop is up over 20% from last season and we expect good promotional opportunities to be available on the conventional and organic Comics for this year and next. Overall, we still have good supplies of apples to sell and expect attractive pricing on most varieties through the remainder of the year. Apples will remain a good category to promote for the next several months with a predictable supply of high-quality fruit.
Avocados
Mexico continues to be the dominant country of origin for avocados. Quality and volume should be steady through the end of 2024 with smaller sizes being the norm. Pricing will remain elevated in comparison to the same period last year. Based on seasonal estimates, Mexico is slightly behind on overall shipments to the U.S. December volumes are expected to remain steady with a balance between supply and demand.
Bush Berries
[email protected]Blueberries:
• Peruvian volume continues to enter the market. The Peruvian peak has good quality and availability, keeping retail priced right. Good quality is moving cases. We are seeing increases in demand year-over-year. Jumbo quality and size continue to arrive with particularly good volumes. Organic volume continues to increase.
• Chile fruit is on the water, with first arrivals to U.S. next week.
• Mexico volumes are looking like a mid-December start on “planned” volume and Mexico will be a much bigger player this year.
• Good volumes crossing; quality is improved and ready to go. Looking for promotions for the holidays.
• Organic volume steady.
• Volumes continue to be steady. Expecting a two-week jump in availability and tighter availability as we get to the holidays or cooler weather starts.
• Organics are increasing and while the market is showing signs of being under supplied, we should be in a decent spot.
Cantaloupe
Offshore cantaloupes from Guatemala are arriving now into the ports in Florida, Texas, New Jersey, and California. Availability remains light as shippers work to cover contract business and weather events during the Guatemala growing season are bringing lighter volume and smaller sizing. Regular 9 count remains the most limited size. Expecting more market availability after the first of the year but expecting the season to not bring strong yields. Honduran cantaloupe imports will pick up after the first of the year as well.
Citrus
Oranges: California continues to have good availability and quality on navel oranges. Crop is still peaking on small fruit, with good volume on 72/88/113/138 counts. Large fruit is more limited but should improve as the season continues. Cooler nights in the growing regions have helped fruit color-up naturally, with little to no gassing hours needed. Quality is great, with brix ranging from 12-13. Florida juice oranges are available, peaking on 100/125/138 counts. The Hamlin variety should be available through most of January, before Valencias start. Florida navel season will finish this week. California Cara Caras are available, with crop peaking on 113/138/88 counts. Caras do not hold up well under longer gassing hours as it reduces shelf life. Availability should improve in December as fruit colors-up naturally with cooler nights. Blood oranges are anticipated to start mid-December with a similar sizing profile to navels and Cara Caras. Minneolas are slated to start mid-January.
Mandarins: Import Moroccan Clementines are available on the East Coast with early-season varieties. Sizing is peaking on 2s and 3s. Moroccan Nadorcotts will start in January and should last through mid-April. California Clementines are coming into more volume and good availability. Currently, the Clemenule variety is available, with Tangos to start next year. Overall volume for the season is up from last year with sizing peaking on 28 count. Florida tangerines are available, peaking on 120/150 counts. Orri mandarins out of Florida are anticipated to start soon, peaking on 100 count.
Grapes
Quality on remaining California fruit is very hit or miss, but some retailers will try to hang on if they can due to cost. We can expect most of the industry to make a full transition to South American imports over the next 10–15 days, but supplies entering the U.S. market will not be enough to meet the growing demand. Three million cartons are needed to completely fill the pipeline and Peru only exported 2 million boxes last week. The Ica region of Peru is starting almost a month later than last season due to cool weather, so we won’t see peak volumes from Ica until the end of January. Expect to see a demand-exceed-supply situation through most of December.
Honeydew
Starting to see honeydews out of Northern Mexico crossing into Nogales winding down for the season. There will be a slight gap period until Southern Mexico honeydews begin around December 26th. Offshore honeydews are available at the ports in Florida, Texas, and California. Not yet available into the New Jersey ports.
Limes
Region: Veracruz, Mexico
Weather Update: The weather forecast for this week predicts light rains some days. Temperatures are expected to range from a minimum of 61°F to a maximum of 85°F.
Market Intel: The demand for limes has been steady.
Sizing Profile: Peak sizes are 200/175/230s. Size distribution: 110-9%, 150-18%, 175-28%, 200-24%, 230-17%, and 250-4%..
Quality: Quality issues being reported: oil spots, blanching, scarring, and skin breakdown.
Looking Ahead: By end of December, we will see a steady volume. All the large fruit will have been harvested, leaving us with small- to medium-sized fruit. This will be very beneficial for our established programs.
Mangos
Ecuador:
• Ecuador has already passed their peak harvest/packing for the U.S. We will start seeing a decline on volume for the upcoming weeks as Ecuador has already transitioned from the Tommy Atkins variety to the Kent/Keitt varieties. Also, the last of the Ataulfo variety is being packed this week. With this transition, we will see a size change on the entirety of the mango crop, going from mainly 10/12 counts to now 8/9/10 counts for the reminder of the season. Ecuador as a country is expected to finish their packing season by week 50, meaning week 52 arrivals to the U.S.
• We will continue to see the supply chain disruptions/delays with container for the remainder of the season. Most of the volume now going to the East Coast, with a little to the West Coast which has been the most affected by availability of containers.
• Quality overall has been good in most cases, with some sunken shoulder and ripe fruit at arrival to the U.S. Now that we are entering the last weeks of the Ecuadorian season, we will have to keep a close eye on quality.
• Crop outlook in Ecuador is about 70% large sizes (6-9 counts), followed by 30% small sizes (10/12 counts).
• Current weather conditions in Guayaquil, Ecuador are in the high-80s to mid-70s.
• The Peruvian mango season has already started with some growers already packing and shipping to the U.S. since last week. We are expecting for Peru to have a good season this year with plenty of volume (around 25 million boxes this year alone). It is expected that Peru will have smaller sizes this season compared to others as there has been a water shortage in the country which is needed for the size of the mango to increase. This is causing crops to be mainly concentrated in the 9/10/12-count sizes. It will be dependent on rains or a better water situation for the size of the fruit to increase. Expectations for the Peruvian mango season are for packing from Peru to run up until the second week February, meaning arrivals early in March.
• Same as Ecuador, Peru is having vessel problems and availability. We expect most of the shipments to go to the East Coast as there is more availability there. We are also hearing that there is a carton shortage in the industry for new orders placed to the carton company. This is due to overcommitments from the carton company as well as other commodities such as grapes and berries that are still in season. This shortage is expected to get better starting January 2025. In the meantime, shippers are looking to ship in generic cartons that are available.
• We will also be seeing organic mango coming in our 4kg box this season to both the West and East Coasts.
• Crop outlook in Peru is about 40% large sizes (6-9 counts), followed by 60% small sizes (10/12 counts).
• Current weather conditions in Tambo Grande, Peru are in the high-80s to mid-60s.
Papaya
Supply is not meeting demand for papaya in the USA market. Supply conditions have not changed with low yields and marginal quality affecting papaya in Mexico. Contracts are being prorated due to the lack of availability and high prices. Prices remain stable after coming down from extremely high prices in the U.S. market. Crop yields continue to be affected by the changes in weather with additional rainfall at the fields and root rot still present. Weather conditions in Mexico are not favorable for improving yields. Inventories are showing NO availability to offer.
Majority of sizes are between 6–12s with little to NO surplus fruit.
Quality is reported as marginal with fruit showing high speckling and some scarring.
Color is 25%- 50% /12-14 brix at point of shipping. Ideal temperature for Imperial papaya is 48 degrees to avoid quality issues upon receiving.
Crop outlook: Forecast shows conditions for tight supply for the next two weeks.
Market Intel: NOT enough supply to service demand.
Pears
We are now shipping Bartletts, Anjou, Bosc, and red pears out of Washington and Oregon. Overall, the pear crop will be very short this year, with all varieties being down 30% to 50%. The good news is that the remaining fruit will be of good quality and is eating well this year. Due to the short crop, expect prices to be much higher than in previous years and for supplies to remain tight for the foreseeable future.
Pineapple
Availability: Supply Meeting Demand in U.S. Market!
Growing regions: MEXICO - Little volume of fruit crossing out of Mexico last week with growers concerned with not meeting U.S. specifications. Most fruit harvested will remain in Mexico and is being sold at internal markets with good overall prices. Weather at the pineapple fields is keeping yields extremely low, compounded by marginal internal quality with lower brix and longer crowns. Transportation out of Mexico is stable with good availability of trucks to service pineapple shippers. COSTA RICA - Supply is stable but with not much surplus at the packing plants. Availability is now mixed with some 7s and 8s available for the next two weeks. Good-quality fruit is being exported but the main issue remains a lack of sizing. The shortage of large fruit has not changed and as per latest forecast, it will continue for the remainder of this season. Market is now stable with lower prices driven by less demand. NO significant surplus is expected to happen, and prices will remain lower due to lagging demand.
Quality: • Mexican fruit quality is marginal with little to NO fruit meeting U.S. specifications. Prices are high on all counts out of Mexico and Costa Rica. COSTA RICA - Volume is improving AT PACKING with the expectation that it will improve further on smaller counts. Some surplus fruit is available to pack on small counts currently. The U.S. market is lower on all counts with supply meeting demand. Costa Rica is under HEAVY RAINS in the northern region.
Movement: The USDA is showing a low number of pineapple loads crossing last week with only 757 containers reported FROM Costa Rica for the entire continental USA. It’s a very low number for this time of year with little change in the last few weeks.
Forecast: Some surplus fruit is currently being offered at shipping points by large grower/shippers. Market is lower with slow demand and slightly lower prices this week versus last week.
Strawberries
California - Santa Maria, Oxnard, and Central Mexico growing areas are all harvesting, causing some tiered pricing. Strawberries are limited due to quality issues after the rains. Pre-booking orders is recommended. California fruit is fair quality, some white shoulders, decay, and medium to small sizing. Mexico fruit is also having some quality issues after recent rains. Santa Maria for the week of 12/2 is forecast on Wednesday for areas of low clouds giving way to sun; Thursday and Friday sunny skies; Saturday partly sunny; and sunny on Sunday. Highs are expected in the 60s on Wednesday, increasing to the 70s Thursday and Friday, and decreasing to the 60s for the weekend with lows in the 40s. The week of 12/9 is forecast for Monday and Tuesday to be sunny, Wednesday mostly cloudy, Thursday sunny, Friday partly sunny, Saturday sunny, and Sunday partly cloudy. Highs are forecast in the 60s, decreasing to the 50s on Sunday, and lows in the upper-30s to low-40s. Oxnard for the week of 12/2 is forecast on Wednesday and Thursday to have areas of low clouds giving way to sun, Friday sunny, Saturday partly cloudy, and then sunny on Sunday. Highs are expected in the 60s, increasing to the 70s Friday through the weekend, and lows in the 40s, increasing to the 50s Thursday through the weekend. The week of 12/9 is forecast for a Monday morning shower, becoming partly sunny Monday, Tuesday sunny, Wednesday mostly cloudy, and then Thursday through the weekend mostly sunny. Highs are forecast in the 70s on Wednesday, decreasing to the 60s Thursday through Saturday, and then the 50s on Sunday, and lows in the upper-40s to low-50s.
Watermelon
Supplies are very tight on watermelons and mini watermelons. Northern Mexico finished. Southern Mexico will not start until January. Jalisco, Mexico will start in a couple of weeks out of Edinburg, Texas. Supplies will be very tight in December and January. Offshore melons will start in a couple of weeks but expect to see lower yields with all the rain. Yucatan, Mexico will start in February.
Organic Fruits & Vegetables
Organic Apples
[email protected]We are now harvesting and shipping new crop on all organic varieties. Overall, the organic apple crop will be smaller than last season. The organic Honeycrisp will be much shorter than last season and is expected to be down over 40%. Expect to see higher prices and for Honeycrisp to remain tight. The organic Granny crop is also a little short and we expect to see prices climb as we get later in the year. The organic Gala and Pink Lady are both down compared to last season, but just a little, so these varieties look to be the most promotable for the rest of the year.
Organic Dry Vegetables
[email protected]Nogales dry vegetables are finally going strong! We are seeing many varieties and sizing from there now. As we get further into December, we should see even more supply coming across the border.
Organic Onions
[email protected]Organic onions are in full swing right now. There are plenty available from multiple locations right now. Quality of the onions has been outstanding so far! Washington has red, yellow, white, and sweets available and they are looking to promote. Our California program (Tobias Farms) still has plenty of red and yellow onions and they look great! We should see this market stay steady until we get into February.
Organic Pears
[email protected]We are now shipping new crop organic Bartletts, organic Anjou, and organic Bosc this week. Overall, the organic pear crop will be down 30%-50%, depending on the variety. Expect prices to be much higher than previous years, but quality remains very good.
Organic Potatoes
[email protected]We are in the middle of POTATO season. Quality out of the Washington, Oregon, Colorado, and other locations is very good. Shippers are looking to promote and are willing to give some advance pricing if need be. We should not see much change in this situation for at least 2 to 3 more months.
Organic Squash
[email protected]Winter squash is in full swing at this point coming out of Mexico and is available to load out of Nogales. Our California squash program (Tobias Farms) has gone very well this season. We are down to butternut, spaghetti, Delicata, and Carnival. We should have supply through December.
Organic Sweet Potatoes
[email protected]The theme of the week is “full swing.” Sweet potatoes are going strong and every variety and size is available right now. Quality out of the Livingston, California area is great! Pricing has come down some from the highs of October but is still pretty strong.
Transportation
Western United States
October experienced normal seasonality, with the expectation being similar through November and into December. The Pacific Northwest region picked up in early October as apples started to ship out more. As the month progressed, Arizona started their season out of Nogales and Yuma as well. Both Arizona and the Pacific Northwest saw early capacity constraints while there was a higher L/T ratio. But over the past couple weeks, that has stabilized with more capacity entering those regions. Early November, freight out of the Salinas area began to slow down as production out of Yuma increased for harvesting mixed vegetables, which will last through the first quarter of 2025. While normal seasonality is expected over the holidays, keep in mind that this can mean difficulties with coverage and higher rates, especially for short-notice and recovery loads.
The oversupply of carriers continues with the ability to cover loads being relatively available despite seeing some fluctuations in price points that had been previously stable. Expect this to continue at least through November. Freight out of Arkansas specifically has seen pockets of tightness with low lead time. Simple freight is moving quickly, while more complex shipments are taking more time. Produce season out of Indiana is coming to an end, but expect things to stay relatively flat through November.
Eastern United States
Tightness prevailed in October primarily due to two major hurricanes in the Southeast, which caused capacity constraints resulting in a backlog of freight. The market has since corrected itself and settled back into regular seasonal cadence. As we move through November, we will begin to see a small produce push out of the Southeast as fall crop is ready to haul.
GLOBAL UPDATES
OCEAN CARRIER CONSOLIDATION - Fresh produce growers and shippers attempting to move cargo globally via ocean vessels are dealing with scenarios where ocean carriers genuinely dictate some markets. They dictate and determine the marketability and viability of export markets for many fresh produce exporters. Shippers are being forced to commit earlier to ocean lines to reserve space for upcoming seasons, and spot market space on vessels is nearly impossible to secure.
RED SEA SHIPPING CRISIS – The total capacity of ocean containers has grown by 10% in the past 12 months, yet much capacity was absorbed by re-routing from the Red Sea and Asia port congestion in recent months. Hundreds of ships are currently diverting around Africa to avoid attacks in the Red Sea, causing delays to global trade and inflicting months of disruption and imminent price rises on supplies. Crisis has led to doubling insurance costs and soaring demands for security services, which has raised prices and affected availability of fresh produce from Africa and Australia.
DEMURRAGE/DETENTION CHARGES - Shippers negotiating with ocean carriers or freight forwarders on perishable cargo contracts should request as much free time at destination as possible to reduce the risk of detention/demurrage charges when inspections/fumigations or drayage capacity constraints delay cargo delivery at destination. Unavoidable and unprecedented demurrage and detention charges due to delays in turning cargo at destination continue through 2024.
CONTAINER SHORTAGE – The ongoing shortage of refrigerated ocean containers is significantly affecting shipments from Latin America (LATAM) to the USA. This issue stems from a combination of seasonal demand and global logistics disruptions. An imbalance in container availability, compounded by extended transit times and port congestion, is leading to delays and rising shipping costs. Most ocean carriers have responded by imposing elevated peak-season surcharges. Addressing this issue requires coordinated efforts to improve container availability and streamline logistics processes.
For more global freight insights please visit Global Freight Markets Insights | C.H. Robinson.
Floral
Supply and capacity are adequate this week. Farms are preparing for Christmas shipping.