August 2023 - Insights to Action

Fresh produce trends continue to stabilize

  • Produce dollars grew +2.9% over the last 4 weeks with volume nearly flat to the prior year at (0.3%)
  • Year to date, volume has only seen slight decline (-0.9%) and dollars have seen +1.8% growth
  • Unfortunately, total edible store is still seeing the impact of inflation

Bar graph of 2023 YTD for produce. 

Regional performance YTD (28 weeks)1

Although 7 out of 8 regions are growing dollars YTD, only the Southeast and West regions are showing volume growth.

Map of the United States and a table breakdown of all the regions and percent change in 2022 and 2021. 

Top 10 fruit and vegetables $1

  • YTD, berries, tomatoes, and onions are the only commodities in the top 10 that are growing in both dollars and volume
  • Potatoes and lettuce are doing well from a dollar sales perspective, but volume is down

Bar graph of produce sales broken down by type. 

Shopper behaviors: paying more for less YTD (L28 Weeks)2

  • Produce buyers continue to make more trips to buy fruits and vegetables, and spend more dollars per trip. However, they are still walking away with less volume than they were a year ago.5
  • With increased store traffic in value retailers (see below), traditional grocery retailers continue to review margins, adjust assortment, and center strategy on loyalty and keeping shoppers engaged.

Breakdown of volume per trip, dollars per trip, dollars per buyer, and trips. 

Thru 28 weeks, produce dollars continued to shift away from traditional grocery2

  • Although still the largest channel of produce, traditional grocery continues to lose share of market to more “price focused” retailers such as Walmart and discount grocery.
  • Dollar stores are benefiting from increased traffic, as are larger value players like Winco, Grocery Outlet, and Walmart

Fresh produce trends: regional performance YTD (28 weeks)1

Although 7 out of 8 regions are growing dollars YTD, only the Southeast and West regions are showing volume growth.

Table of channel and dollar share of produce. A bar graph of the fastest growing retailers in the U.S. 

Produce category inflation update1

  • YTD, produce is trending at 2.7% thru 28 weeks. Fruits are coming in at +1.1%, while vegetables come in higher at 4.4%
  • Center store inflation continues to be more elevated as edible price per unit up 9% over PY and +21% vs 2021

Table showing price per volume and percent change in 2022 and 2021. 

Shoppers’ concern over price Continues to change behaviors3

Lists statistics on shoppers. Highlight: 93% of shoppers are concerned about food cost inflation. 

Produce has a significant presence in Labor Day celebrations

  • Labor Day generated nearly $3 billion dollars and 1.7 billion pounds in 2022
  • Items associated with picnics and barbeques are featured on ads for Labor Day: tomatoes, peppers, potatoes, corn, and watermelon
  • Multi-buy savings are highlighted for the holiday, especially on items like corn and avocados
  • Fruit seasonality aligns well with holiday and provides a healthy snacking option for families
  • Stone fruits are not only top seasonal items, but also top promoted items across the department as they enter peak selling season
  • Contact your account manager for local activation

Total produce US multi-outlet1 – Labor Day 2019-2022

Bar graph of TTL produce in dollars and pounds. Table showing top promoted items and sales of those items. 

  1. Circana Integrated Fresh, Total US, MULO, Calendar Year 2023 Ending 7.16.23
  2. Circana Panel Data, Total US- all outlets, (Calendar Year 2023 Ending 7.16.23
  3. Latest Shopper and Performance Topline Insights Across Food & Beverages, Circana June 2023