July 2023 - Insights to Action

As produce category stabilizes, inflation continues to impact center store

  • Produce dollars grew slightly (+1.1%) over the last 4 Weeks, but volume dipped to -2.6%
  • Thru 24 weeks, volume has only seen slight declines (-1.0%) and dollars have seen nominal growth (+1.4%)
  • Total edible store is still seeing > 9 Pt gap between dollar and unit growth

Percent of produce - US multi-outlet and 2023 YTD percentages. 

Regional performance YTD (24 weeks)1

Although 7 out of 8 Regions are growing dollars YTD, only the Southeast and West Regions are showing volume growth.

Map of the United States and channel breakdown by region. 

Top 10 Fruit and Vegetables $1

  • YTD, berries, tomatoes, and onions are the only commodities in the Top 10 that are growing in both dollars and volume
  • Potatoes are doing well from a dollar sales perspective, but volume is down

Sales in dollars broken down by produce type. 

The evolving grocery experience (FMI) 4

  • FMI recently shared some key stats from their Food Industry Speaks report
  • The report includes a series of insightful images on how food retailers are focusing investment to improve the grocery environment and shopper experience

Embracing Ecommerce - Image of a grocery store and different percentage popups about sales online, curbside pick-up, and home delivery. 

The consumer “value” definition goes well beyond price 4

Other images included in report include Changes at Checkout, Expanding Departments, Investing in Workforce, and Technology on the Front Burner. For full report click here

Growing Selections - Image of a grocery store with different percentage pop-ups about plant-based foods, local products, eco-friendly products, products with beneficial nutrition, and organic products. 

A price to pay1

Inflation has eased within produce, but regressed slightly the last 4 weeks. YTD, Produce is trending at +2.4% thru 24 weeks. Fruits coming in at +0.3%, while vegetables came in higher at +4.5%.

Table of price per volume and percentage change in 2022 and 2021. 

Rising inflation increases food-at-home share, but foodservice improving in latest quarter3

Bar graph of total U.S. food and beverage percentages in the last 52 weeks. 

Note: Retail includes measured POS channels (MULO+C) and projections for other pure play eCom, other club and specialty retailers. Foodservice sales based on consumer data, excluding tips. Excludes bars/drinking places (tracked separately by IRI) accounting for ~$250B. CPI as per BLS shown for total food and foodservice. Average price per volume / product mix per IRI data shown for At-Home. Source: Circana POS and consumer data ending 3/23.

  1. Circana Integrated Fresh, Total US, MULO, Calendar Year 2023 Ending 6.18.23
  2. Circana Panel Data, Total US- all outlets, (Calendar Year 2023 Ending 6.18.23
  3. Latest Shopper and Performance Topline Insights Across Food & Beverages, Circana May 2023
  4. FMI: 2022 The Food Retailing Industry Speaks; The Evolving Grocery Experience, https://www.fmi.org/our-research/the-evolving-grocery-experience