Shoppers Continue to Pay More for Less

Through forty-four weeks of the year, inflationary pressures continue to have an adverse effect on produce demand. Produce dollars have grown 4.8% to $64B, while volume is down (4.1%). Quarter 4 to date, the volume losses have softened somewhat with (3.0%) vs prior year, but dollar sales have weakened to 3.7% growth as well.¹

The two largest regions in Produce dollar sales are on opposite sides of the performance rankings. The Southeast continues to outpace US at +7.0% vs. 2021, while the Northeast continues to struggle with only 2.5% growth.¹

Berries continue to lead ranking with notable dollar growth rate of 6.0% and volume growth of 4.5%. At-home meal mainstays such as potatoes and onions are seeing significant growth.¹

Inflation impact can be seen in the premium item salad kits, showing minimal dollar growth with significant volume losses of (6.8%).

Consumers adapting to inflationary prices… shopping differently

Multi-store/channel shopping has become the norm as consumers look for value and solutions

• Increased store Shoppers remain engaged, making more trips than prior year and eating more at home since COVID.
• Within Produce, Traditional Grocery continues to lose share of market as shopper retention proves challenging.
• Price is important with inflationary pressures; but consumers are also looking for value and convenience.
• With quick trips on the rise, grocery areas around the perimeter, such as deli and bakery, have benefited from the increased traffic and solution mindset.
• Consumers are still spending when value is present and communicated effectively.

Strategies to consider when trying to keep shoppers engaged and loyal

Product and Placement

• Align pack sizes with your shopper.
• Manage assortment to accommodate these shifts in shopper behavior.
• Expect “Ready-made” and “Easy” to be in demand with quick trips.
• Optimize space based on new velocities and trends.

Shopper Retention

• Implement loyalty programs to keep shoppers in your store.
• Cross merchandise to encourage basket building… meal solutions across aisles.
• Develop in store merchandising and eCommerce messaging to build these smaller baskets.
• “Hot Meal” solutions in Deli.

Price and Promotion

• Increase frequency of promotions, but with “new” base prices in mind.
• Strategically pulse deeper promotions as traffic drivers.
• Cross promote to encourage basket building.
• Align messaging to value and solutions, not just price.

As supply chain demands ease, buyer’s expectations change³

Insight provided by Josh Noonan, General Manager, Delivered Sales

The refrigerated Load-to-Truck ratio has now reached alignment with a 6-year historical low. Historically, a softness in the freight market has increased the buyers’ demand for higher service levels. Last year, it was “just get me a truck…”; where now, the narrative has changed to “get me a truck… have it deliver on time… and in full”.

Route guide depth is now 1.19, with the top 2 awarded carriers accepting nearly all shipment tenders. Truckload fleet utilization is back at the 10-year average, declining since its near 100% utilization thru most of 2021 and early 2022.

CH Robinson is the industry leader in freight pricing and market data by leveraging our largest North American capacity network