November 2023 - Insights to Action

Volume demand has stabilized heading into the holiday season

  • Year to date, the category continues to improve with volume now flat, while dollar sales are growing +1.7%
  • Fruit has performed better than vegetables, but Thanksgiving should lift vegetable category this month
  • Center store inflation lingers, but is improving

Bar graph of 2023 YTD of produce broken down by dollars and lbs. 

Regional Performance YTD (44 weeks)1

Regional performance impacted by customer mix and population shifts.

Table of regions broken down by dollar share of produce, percentage change in 2022, and volume percentage change in 2022.

Top 10 Fruit and Vegetables $1

  • Many inelastic commodities were resilient in the inflationary environment.
  • Higher register ring items like salad kits continue to struggle as consumers trade down in category.

Bar graph of produce sales in dollars. 

Shoppers are Engaged... Still Paying More for Less2

  • Produce buyers continue to make more trips to buy Fruits and Vegetables and spending more dollars per trip. However, they are still walking away with less volume than they were a year ago.2
  • With increased store traffic in value retailers (see below), traditional grocery retailers continue to review margins, adjust assortment, and center strategy on loyalty and keeping shoppers engaged.

Statistics broken down by volume per trip, dollars per trip, dollars per buyer, and trips. 

Price driven channel shifting continues2

  • Although still the largest channel of Produce, Traditional Grocery continues to lose share of market to more value focused retailers such as Walmart and Club.
  • Larger grocery retailers are holding steady with loyalty offers and digital presence…as smaller chains and independents are losing share

Bar graph of channel shifting. 

Inflation Update1

  • Inflation has eased within produce, but prices are still elevated vs 2021.
  • Promotional strategies must incorporate increased cost of goods and subsequent “new” base price norms.
  • Frequency is still needed, but depth of promotions will need to be reviewed

Table of YTD produce, vegetables, and fruits broken down by price per volume and percentage change in 2022 and 2021. 

The most visible marketing strategy is your promotional strategy

Table of showing type of buyer, the results, and examples. The four types of buyers are loyal customers, competitor's customers, brand switchers, and price conscious buyers. 

Category management thought leadership is crucial for success in today’s environment

Four sections broken down by produce and placement, price and promotion, shopper retention, and omni channel approach. 

Robinson Fresh can help in 2024

  • Information Advantage: Market and Customer level insights
  • Shopper Panel data and surveys
  • Data centric space reviews geared to optimize assortments and merchandising.
  • JDA Space management support – Industry standard
  • We analyze how variables such as weather, seasonality, location, and store format play into an item’s price elasticity to help you maximize your category’s results
  • Everyday Price / Promo Responsiveness
  • Seasonal and Holiday promotional reviews
  • Regional demographic analysis to align messaging to YOUR shopper
  • Cross Purchase behavior studies
  • Recipes that promote basket building
  • We can assist in the development of in store POS with corresponding eCommerce messaging
  • The most visible marketing strategy is your promotional strategy, so we focus on aligning that messaging thru an Omni lens (In store/eCommerce)
  • Marketing collateral to support the digital shopper journey
  • Dedicated eCommerce resource to provide expertise on how to improve the efficiency of your website

  1. Circana Integrated Fresh, Total US, MULO, Calendar Year 2023 Ending 11.5.23
  2. Circana Panel Data, Total US- all outlets, Calendar Year 2023 Ending 11.5.23