October 2023 - Insights to Action

Demand trends improve with a stronger Q3

  • Produce dollars grew 1.8% last quarter, as volume grew 1.7% vs prior year
  • Year to date, the category continues to improve with volume nearly flat at 0.1% and dollars growing 1.8%
  • A gap still exists with center store as inflation lingers

Produce - US Multi-Outlet and 2023 YTD percentage change. 

Regional performance YTD (40 weeks)1

Southeast remains the top performing region as California continues to struggle by comparison

Map of the United States and table showing dollar share of produce and percentage change, broken down by region. 

Top 10 fruits and vegetables $1

  • Southeast remains the top performing region in the produce category as California continues to struggle by comparison
  • Berries, tomatoes, melons, and onions are growing in both dollars and volume
  • Higher register ring items like salad kits have been slow to recover

Bar graph of produce sales by dollar. 

Inflation update1

  • YTD, produce is trending at 1.9% thru 40 weeks. Fruits are coming in at +0.6%, while vegetables came in higher at +3.3%.
  • In comparison, total edible inflation sits at +7.4% year to date

Table showing price per volume and percentage change of different produce. 

Eating at home trends continue5

Bar graph of retail - at home sales. 

Eating at home trends have impacted year over year category performance1

Table of produce categories broken down by sales and volume. 

Approach to meal prep at home is changing

Shoppers are changing how they prepare their meals due to inflation, especially when it comes to meat; 23% said they are trying to stretch their meat recipes by incorporating larger amounts of less costly food items like veggies, pasta, and beans.

Bar graph of meal preparation inflationary change impacts. 

Christmas is a stock-up shopper occasion with basket size and spend increasing

  • Christmas is traditionally more fruit-focused, while Thanksgiving leans more toward vegetables. However, large family gatherings tend to drive demand for both.
  • Vegetables such as potatoes, sweet potatoes, asparagus, greens, and green beans are promoted frequently to provide ingredients and side items to family meals
  • Oranges, mandarins, and grapes are staples in Holiday fruit basket and snacking trays
  • Maximize sales by building large holiday-related displays and place incremental points-of-interruption to cross merchandise meal ingredients and sides
  • Contact your account manager for local activation

Bar graph of total produce US Multi Outlet Christmas 2019 and Christmas 2022. Table of top promoted items brojen down by LBs sold and sales in dollars.


  1. Circana Integrated Fresh, Total US, MULO, Calendar Year 2023 Ending 10.8.23
  2. Circana Panel Data, Total US- all outlets, Calendar Year 2023 Ending 10.8.23
  3. Circana Integrated Fresh, Total US, MULO, Produce - Calendar Year 2023 Ending 10.8.23, All other Departments thru 7.30.23
  4. Circana August Primary Shopper Survey
  5. Circana Integrated Fresh Scan Panel and POS data models for YTD 2023 (data through 9/03/2023 & 9/10/2023)