Q3 2026 - Insights to Action

Produce demand is beginning to stabilize as consumer sentiment improves.

While value remains a priority, shoppers continue to emphasize quality, food safety, and supply assurance. Retailers can capitalize on seasonal demand and finish the year strong through targeted holiday promotions.

Looking ahead to 2027, produce demand is expected to strengthen as category volatility eases and consumer sentiment continues to improve. While value will remain a key priority, consumers will adapt their shopping behaviors in ways that balance affordability, quality, convenience, and food safety.

Produce YTD - U.S. multi-outlet

Consumer Demand & Market Trends

After a difficult start to 2026, produce demand is beginning to stabilize as consumer sentiment improves.

While shoppers remain value-focused and selective in their purchases, confidence is gradually returning. Food safety, quality, consistency, and supply assurance continue to be key drivers of purchase decisions, creating opportunities for retailers that deliver both value and differentiation.

Total produce demand softness line graph
Top 10 fruits and vegetables YTD bar graph

Balance of Year Planning & Emerging Trends

Growth levers: Promotions

As demand stabilizes and inflation eases, retailers are increasingly using promotions to drive volume and shopper engagement.

Success, however, depends on precision. The most effective promotions are guided by category-specific demand insights, pricing intelligence, and shopper behavior data.

Robinson Fresh Advantage

  • Commodity-specific elasticity insights
  • Competitive pricing intelligence
  • Promotional performance analytics

Result: Smarter promotional investments that drive volume while protecting margin.

Holiday Sales Recovery Starts Now

Ad for Thanksgiving items
Stock-up trip tug-of-war

Club stores are attracting more planning stock-up trips through value-driven offerings, yet grocery retains meaningful advantages in freshness, flexibility, and pack-size relevance. Understanding what pulls shoppers toward club stores and where grocery can still win creates a clear roadmap for recapturing trips and strengthening shopper engagement.

How club stores capture trips and how grocery wins back the trip

2027 Outlook

demand strengthens across key categories. Shoppers will remain selective about where and how they spend, rewarding retailers that deliver meaningful value, relevant nutrition, seamless convenience, and a differentiated shopping experience.

Various produce information

Sources:

  • Circana Integrated Fresh Scan Total US MULO+ & US Regions Mulo+, Building Calendar Year Ending 09.27.2026
  • Circana Integrated Fresh Scan Total US MULO+, Building Calendar Year Ending 09.27.2026
  • Circana Integrated Fresh Scan Total US MULO+, 2026 – Building 13 Weeks Ending 09.27.2026
  • Robinson Fresh Primary Research: The Impact of Club Stores on Traditional Grocery, Numerator | Sep. 16, 2026 | n=205