September 2023 - Insights to Action

Produce Trends Continue to Improve

  • Produce dollars grew nominally at +0.1% over the last four weeks with volume also up to the prior year at +0.8%
  • Year to date, volume has only seen slight decline (-0.6%) and dollars have seen +1.6% growth
  • Total edible store is still seeing the impacts of inflation, but also seeing signs of easing over the last 4 weeks


Bar graph of 2023 YTD of produce by dollars and pounds.


Regional Performance YTD (32 weeks)1

Although seven of the eight regions are growing dollars YTD, only three of those regions are showing volume growth.


Map of the United States and a table with regional breakdown of dollar share of produce and percent change vs. 2022 and volume percent change vs. 2022.


Top 10 Fruit and Vegetables in $1

  • YTD berries, tomatoes, and onions are the only commodities in the Top 10 that are growing in both dollars & volume
  • Higher register items like salad kits have been slow to recover


Bar graph of different produce by dollar sales.


The Grocery Shopper of Tomorrow4

  • Gen X and Boomers continue to have the most buying power, with more disposable income
  • Millennials, however, could drive trends going forward as they grow their families and increase retail grocery spend
  • Over the last 52 weeks, Millennial HHs increased by 2%, while their total dollars spent grew at +8.1%


Bar graph of HH distribution by age, kids under 18 and annual grocery spend.


Understanding Shopper Base and Channel Shifts in Inflationary Times4

  • Walmart continues to win across the board with consumers trips leaking to value channels
  • Clubs are now capturing some of the lower income dollars sales as the shopper base becoming more diverse, but higher income shoppers make up the lion’s share of their base
  • Food Lion has started to grow its higher income shopper base, pulling shoppers from local competitors


Table showing different accounts and sales for lower income, middle income, and upper income.


Inflation Update1

  • YTD, Produce is trending at 2.3% thru 32 weeks. Fruits came in at +0.6%, while vegetables came in higher at 4.0%.
  • Over the last 4 weeks, inflation was down in produce (0.6%) driven by fruits being down (2.4%)


Table showing price per volume and percent change vs. 2022 and 2021.


Others Still Feeling Effects of Inflation1

Traffic is often determined by total basket spend, which causes multi-store shopping and channel shifting


Tables showing total edible, produce, general food, deli, refrigerated, beverages, and frozen broken down by sales, volume, and price.


Commodity Spotlight: Grapes

Grapes are the third largest segment in the Fruit Category with nearly $4.0B in sales expected in 2023. Grapes account for almost 10% of all fruit sales with an annual growth rate of 5.1% since 2019.


Bar graph of dollar sales and another bar graph of seasonality - share of retail sales pounds by week.


Happy Healthy Halloween!

  • Grapes are promoted heavily during Halloween
  • Utilizing Welch’s Halloween themed packaging and POS to create eye catching displays can capture shopper’s attention and build baskets
  • Contact your local salesperson for more information


Two bags of Welch's grapes with Halloween packaging.


  1. Circana Integrated Fresh, Total US, MULO, Calendar Year 2023 Ending 8.13.23
  2. Circana Panel Data, Total US- all outlets, Calendar Year 2023 Ending 8.13.23
  3. Circana Integrated Fresh, Total US, MULO, Produce - Calendar Year 2023 Ending 8.13.23, All other Departments thru 7.30.23
  4. Circana Panel Data, Total US- all outlets, Last 52 Weeks Ending 8.13.23